When Will the Hobby Crash?

Earlier this month REA’s latest auction ended. One of the cards I followed with interest was the 1952 Topps Willie Mays in a PSA 8. The opening bid was $50,000.

         Now, I purchased this card three years ago in a PSA 7 for $9,298. So I had no plans to buy the PSA 8. I was just watching the action (44 bids in total) and wondering how much it would eventually go for.

         It ended up selling for $258,000, including buyer’s premium. I know it has been an amazingly robust couple of years in the baseball card hobby but this winning bid still stunned me. Think about that. More than a quarter million dollars.

         I’ll admit I was also wondering what my 1952 Mays in a PSA 7 would go for if I put it up for sale today. Would it even hit six figures? Probably not. But then, you never know.

         I’ve been buying Topps baseball cards steadily since 1986 and like many of you also collected them when I was a kid in the late 1960s. I’m no longer an active collector but when I think about the prices I paid for very nice vintage baseball cards (pre third-party grading and even after it officially began in 1991) I can’t help but smile. Why? Because I know whatever price I paid for those cards from the 1950s and 1960s have risen substantially in value. You see, even after professional grading came along I was pretty picky when it came to condition. And sure enough, a good amount (but not all) of those cards I’ve had graded in recent years have come back in PSA 7s and even a few 8s.

         The question that’s on the mind of many veteran card buyers like myself is: How long is this price boom in vintage cards going to last?

         I say it’s not going to collapse anytime soon. Why? The quick answer is that we’re watching simple supply and demand at work, enhanced by Covid-19’s impact. Vintage sports cards are now (and have been for years) tough to locate in finer condition. It’s a well-known story that’s not worth detailing here. But now when you factor in the impact that Covid-19 has had on the baseball card-collecting habits of men of all ages, you end up with an explosion of interest in cards, both vintage and modern. They’re sitting at home in front of their computers, looking for cards to buy on eBay and many other web sites. It’s fun, they have disposable income, and they can buy and sell while sitting in their underwear.

         And where is all this money coming from? Retired people in their sixties like me aren’t the only ones buying. Millions of people (mostly men) in their 30s and 40s have been making millions of dollars in recent years, thanks in large part to a steadily rising stock market. It has boomed in just the past five years alone. Although there’s sure to be dips in the future, it’s creating a lot of disposable income. Some of this money is being spent on vintage and modern sports cards. So it should be no surprise that it has resulted in some record-setting prices.

In the next few years will there be a crash in card prices? If your main interest is in modern cards, which I define as anything after 1980, you should proceed with caution. Why? So many more cards were produced and many of them are in near mint or mint condition. But if you’ve been collecting vintage sports cards, you have no worries. Sure, a leveling off may occur in the next decade. But I say vintage is golden and will be so for years to come. Thank you, supply and demand.